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Source: London Telegraph
Greece has been in turmoil for 11 days. The mood seems to have turned "pre-insurrectionary" in parts of Athens - to borrow from the Marxist handbook.
This is a foretaste of what the world may face as the "crisis of
capitalism" - another Marxist phase making a comeback - starts to turn
two hundred million lives upside down.
We are advancing to the political stage of this global train wreck. Regimes
are being tested. Those relying on perma-boom to mask a lack of democratic
or ancestral legitimacy may try to gain time by the usual methods: trade
barriers, sabre-rattling, and barbed wire.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, is
worried enough to ditch a half-century of IMF orthodoxy, calling for a
fiscal boost worth 2pc of world GDP to "prevent global depression".
"If we are not able to do that, then social unrest may happen in many
countries, including advanced economies. We are facing an unprecedented
decline in output. All around the planet, the people have reacted with
feelings going from surprise to anger, and from anger to fear," he
said.
Russia has begun to shut down trade as it adjusts to the shock of Urals oil
below $40 a barrel. It has imposed import tariffs of 30pc on cars, 15pc on
farm kit, and 95pc on poultry (above quota levels). "It is possible
during the financial crisis to support domestic producers by raising customs
duties," said Premier Vladimir Putin.
Russia is not alone. India and Vietnam have imposed steel tariffs. Indonesia
is resorting to special "licences" to choke off imports.
The Kremlin is alarmed by a 13pc fall in industrial output over the last five
months. There have been street protests in Moscow, St Petersburg,
Kaliningrad, Vladivostok and Barnaul. Police crushed "Dissent Marchers"
holding copies of Russia's constitution above their heads in Moscow's
Triumfalnaya Square.
"Russia has not seen anything like these nationwide protests before,"
said Boris Kagarlitsky from Moscow's Globalization Institute.
The Duma is widening the treason law to catch most forms of political dissent,
and unwelcome forms of journalism. Jury trials for state crimes are to be
abolished.
Yevgeny Kiseloyov at the Moscow Times said it feels eerily like
December 1 1934 when Stalin unveiled his "Enemies of the People"
law, kicking off the Great Terror.
The omens are not good in China either. Taxis are being bugged by state
police. The great unknown is how Beijing will respond as its state-directed
export strategy hits a brick wall, leaving exposed a vast eyesore of
concrete and excess plant.
Exports fell 2.2pc in November. Toy, textile, footwear, and furniture plants
are being closed across Guangdong, now the riot hub of South China. Some 40m
Chinese workers are expected to lose their jobs. Party officials have warned
of "mass-scale social turmoil".
The Politburo is giving mixed signals. We don't yet know how much of the
country's plan to boost domestic demand through a $586bn stimulus package is
real, and how much is a wish-list sent to party bosses in the hinterland
without funding.
Shortly after President Hu Jintao said China is "losing competitive edge
in the world market", we saw a move towards export subsidies for the
steel industry and a dip in the yuan peg - even though China already has the
world's biggest reserves ($2 trillion) and the biggest trade surplus ($40bn
a month).
So is the Communist Party mulling a 1930s "beggar-thy-neighbour"
strategy of devaluation to export its way out of trouble? Such raw
mercantilism can only draw a sharp retort from Washington and Brussels in
this climate.
"During a global slowdown, you can't have countries trying to take
advantage of others by manipulating their currencies," said Frank Vargo
from the US National Association of Manufacturers.
It is a view shared entirely by President-elect Barack Obama. "China must
change its currency practices. Because it pegs its currency at an
artificially low rate, China is running massive current account surpluses.
This is not good for American firms and workers, not good for the world,"
he said in October. The new intake of radical Democrats on Capitol Hill will
hold him to it.
There has been much talk lately of America's Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which
set off the protectionist dominoes in 1930. It is usually invoked by free
traders to make the wrong point. The relevant message of Smoot-Hawley is
that America was then the big exporter, playing the China role. By resorting
to tariffs, it set off retaliation, and was the biggest victim of its own
folly.
Britain and the Dominions retreated into Imperial Preference. Other countries
joined. This became the "growth bloc" of the 1930s, free from the
deflation constraints of the Gold Standard. High tariffs stopped the
stimulus leaking out.
It was a successful strategy - given the awful alternatives - and was the key
reason why Britain's economy contracted by just 5pc during the Depression,
against 15pc for France, and 30pc for the US.
Could we see such a closed "growth bloc" emerging now, this time led
by the US, entailing a massive rupture of world's trading system? Perhaps.
This crisis has already brought us a monetary revolution as interest rates
approach zero across the G10. It may overturn the "New World Order"
as well, unless we move with great care in grim months ahead. This is where
events turn dangerous.
The last great era of globalisation peaked just before 1914. You know the rest
of the story.
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