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Source: Bloomberg
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank
by assets, may post its second-straight quarterly loss and fall
short of profit estimates for the year because of writedowns on
home-equity loans and junk-grade corporate loans, Oppenheimer &
Co.'s Meredith Whitney said.
Whitney, whose downgrade of Citigroup last year triggered an
8 percent decline in the company's stock price, said the bank may
report a loss of $1.6 billion, or 28 cents a share, for the first
quarter, compared with a profit of about $5 billion, or $1.01, a
year earlier. Her prediction today compares with the 45-cent per-
share average gain expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst William Tanona said Citigroup
may have to take a writedown of as much as $12 billion.
The rate of loan losses is ``grossly underestimated by
consensus estimates'' at Citigroup and other U.S. banks, Whitney
wrote. ``Core fundamentals are rapidly deteriorating.'' She cut
her per-share prediction for 2008 earnings by more than 70
percent to 75 cents. The New York-based company's shares could
fall more than 36 percent to less than $16, she wrote.
Citigroup fell 38 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $24.74 at 4:10
p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares
have declined about 16 percent this year.
The lender posted a $9.8 billion loss for the fourth
quarter, the widest in its 196-year history, after writing down
subprime mortgage-linked collateralized debt obligations. The
value of those securities plummeted last year as investors
shunned debt linked to the least creditworthy borrowers. Vikram
Pandit stepped in as chief executive officer in December, after
Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince was forced to resign.
Dividend Prediction
Whitney, 38, was among the first analysts to gauge the depth
of Citigroup's losses, writing in a note last October that the
bank may have to cut dividend payments to shareholders for the
first time since the 1990s. In January, the bank slashed its
dividend by 41 percent, reversing a pledge made by its executive-
committee chairman, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin,
to preserve the shareholder payout.
Citigroup may have additional writedowns this quarter on
CDOs, along with losses on more than $43 billion of junk or
``leveraged'' loans, Whitney said. The bank may also face charges
on more than $50 billion of residential mortgages granted to
customers who borrowed in excess of 90 percent of the value of
their homes, Whitney wrote. Credit-card loans also are prone to
higher defaults.
Asset Sales
Citigroup may have to sell $100 billion of assets to free up
capital, Whitney said. The lender will ``likely be forced to sell
what it can and not what it should,'' she wrote.
The bank may write down as much as $12 billion from the
value of fixed-income assets in the first quarter, cutting
earnings per share 63 percent to 15 cents from a prior estimate
of 40 cents, Goldman analyst Tanona wrote in a report dated
today.
Tanona also reduced profit estimates for Merrill Lynch &
Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns
Cos., and JPMorgan Chase & Co., as bonds and loans they own lose
value.
He cut first-quarter earnings per share estimates by 75
percent for Bear Stearns, 73 percent for Lehman Brothers, 24
percent for Morgan Stanley and 27 percent for JPMorgan Chase. All
the firms are based in New York.
In a separate report, Whitney and colleague Kaimon Chung
also cut their earnings estimates on large U.S. East Coast banks
by an average of 29 percent for 2008 and 13 percent for 2009. |