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Source: Reuters
The housing crisis and credit
crunch may end the American dream of property ownership for
millions of people, but for landlords seeking bargain
investment properties the market is looking up.
"There will be a lot of product hitting the street in the
coming months and it should be pretty cheap," said Mike Bacza,
watching the bidding at a foreclosure auction last month in
this western suburb of Chicago. "This year I expect I'll buy at
least two multi-family units in a decent neighborhood."
The 48-year-old union carpenter is not ready to purchase
today, but observes from the back of a large conference hall
crowded where hundreds of people -- most of them investors --
are looking to snap up one of some 170 foreclosed homes.
"I'm on a reconnaissance mission," Bacza said, jotting down
bids. "I want to know what's selling and for how much."
Building contractor Chad Blankenbaker seeks foreclosed
homes to "flip" -- buying at well below market value, refitting
then selling them at a hefty profit. "I'm shocked at how low
the prices are here," he said. "There's so much inventory that
no one has to fight to buy anything."
Around the country the housing crisis represents both a
business opportunity for landlords and a huge shift in the
rental market.
During the property boom, mortgage rates were low and
people could buy a home with little or no money down, so there
was no incentive for many Americans to rent.
"The U.S. rental market was nearly flat between 2000 and
2005," said Ken Fears, an economist at the National Association
of Realtors. "Some landlords were so desperate to get tenants
that we saw cases where they would offer three months free rent
and other promotions to fill vacancies."
"Now mortgage rates have risen and it's harder to gain
access to credit, allowing landlords to jack up rents for the
first time in years," he added.
What is good news for small-time landlords, however, may
not be good for publicly traded U.S. real estate investment
trusts as the extra supply is expected to push prices down.
Some real estate analysts also worry that many landlords
will turn their units into government-subsidized rental housing
and stifle the rebirth of some U.S. inner city areas.
BARGAIN BASEMENT
For many people, the housing market is all bad news now.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said on March 6 that
in the fourth quarter of 2007 a record 0.83 percent of U.S.
home loans entered the foreclosure process. The U.S. mortgage
delinquency rate of 5.82 percent was the highest since 1985,
the MBA said. Officials added that they didn't expect
foreclosures to peak until mid- to late 2008.
Dave Webb, principal of Texas-based firm Hudson & Marshall,
which held the auction in Lombard on behalf of lenders, said he
expects business will be brisk all year, nationwide.
"Last year we sold 7,000 units, in '08 we should sell
15,000," he said. "If we had the capacity we could do 40,000."
Even markets like Chicago, which has not experienced the
same boom-and-bust intensity of states like Florida or
California, have seen many foreclosed homes hit the market.
According to real estate data company RealtyTrac, Chicago
was the 30th ranked U.S. city for the percentage of homes with
foreclosure filings in 2007. In absolute terms, its 73,469
filings put it in fourth place.
Auctions are often the last resort for lenders to offload
foreclosed properties they could not sell using real estate
agents. At the Lombard auction, most prices were around 60
percent to 70 percent off the list price -- itself well below
market value. Projection screens showed photos of properties
boarded up in inner city areas, but there were also many
higher-end houses in wealthy suburbs up for sale.
"There's no emotion here," said real estate agent Greg
Fisher, looking around the conference hall. "These investors
know what to bid, what it will cost to get these properties
into reasonable shape and what to sell or rent them for."
The lack of easy credit following the credit crunch means
that there will be no shortage of renters in most markets.
"The housing crisis has removed the ability of people to
get out of the rental market and onto the property ladder,"
said Van Johnson, president of the Georgia Association of
Realtors.
John Vranas of Vranas & Chioros Realty Group, which owns
rental properties throughout the Chicago area, said the "rental
market has been firming since the first quarter of last year."
"We're now seeing normal vacancy rates of 3 percent to 5
percent compared with double digits during the property boom."
BMO Capital Markets analyst Rich Anderson said he expects
that "an unprecedented flow of rental properties hitting the
market could be a negative for multi-family REITs over the next
few years."
He said the influx of properties could especially be a
"thorn in the side" for REITs like Apartment Investment and
Management Co and Camden Property Trust with exposure to
hard-hit areas like Florida, Texas or California.
Observers like Boston-based real estate analyst John
Anderson worry that investors will seek to get properties
registered in government-subsidized rent programs. Commonly
referred to as "Section 8" housing -- a reference to the U.S.
Housing Act of 1937 -- under which the U.S. government
guarantees the rent.
"Guaranteed cash flow like this actually raises the
property's value," John Anderson said. "But flooding inner city
neighborhoods with Section 8 housing will kill off the recovery
or gentrification that has taken hold in recent years."
(Reporting by Nick Carey; Editing by Eddie Evans) |